Modeling the Territorial Structure Dynamics of the Northern Part of the Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain

The subject of our study is the tendency to reduce floodplain area regulated rivers and its impact on degradation socio-environmental systems in floodplain. aim work create a new approach analysis forecasting multidimensional processes territories under influence natural technogenic factors. This uses methods hydrodynamic geoinformation modeling, statistical observational data results high-performance computational experiments. basis dynamics model complex structure combines characteristics frequency ranges flooding features various sites (cadastral land use). Modeling hydrological regime based numerical shallow water models. regression riverbed allowed us calculate corrections parameters real floods that imitate effect this factor. made it possible use digital maps modern topography for modeling construction past future decades. technological set algorithms software, consisting three modules. module includes, first all, cadastres territory Volga-Akhtuba (VAF, interfluve Volga Akhtuba last 400 km before flowing into Caspian Sea), satellite observation data, spatial distributions second provides multilayer area, their aggregated characteristics. third calculates territorial structure, criteria state environmental socio-economic system (ESES) forecast changes. We have shown ESES northern part VAF caused by negative territory, due hydroelectric power station riverbed. dynamic manifests itself decrease stable flooded an increase unflooded unstable areas. An important result until 2050.